Appendix A: Retail Strategy
A.1 Capacity Assessment
The capacity assessment is the mechanism used to estimate the amount of additional expenditure that will occur in the County over the period of the Strategy to 2020. The 2007 Review considered capacity to 2020 but this review does not extend the period beyond 2020 (the life time of the next development plan).
The key inputs and outputs to the capacity assessment are a derivation of the following:
- Step 1: Population and Expenditure Estimates; Population projections and per capita expenditure estimates – estimating the total amount of expenditure by the resident population of the county to 2020.
- Step 2: Turnover Estimates; estimating the total amount of turnover for retail outlets in the county to 2020. This includes inputting information from household and shopper surveys to determine leakage and trade draw.
- Step 3: Turnover Ratios; Calculating turnover ratios – turnover divided by floorspace. This includes a floorspace assessment - a quantitative analysis of all available floorspace (trading and vacant) in the main centres within the catchment area.
- Step 4: Gross Additional Expenditure Potential – using the turnover estimates to 2020 to estimate the growth in spare expenditure capacity through the strategy years
- Step 5: Future Sources of Retail Sales; calculating the amount of expenditure that may occur through new retail developments (extant planning permissions) and increases in turnover efficiency.
- Step 6: Capacity Potential – adjusting the gross additional expenditure potential by subtracting the future source of retail sales to result in net expenditure capacity. The amount of floorspace that is required to accommodate this anticipated increase is calculated using turnover ratios. This results in a figure for net floorspace potential available in the county, broken down by convenience and comparison.
Step 1: Population and Expenditure Estimates
The first step is to calculate the total amount of expenditure on convenience and comparison goods by the resident population of the County up to 2020. To derive this, the estimated per capita levels of expenditure are multiplied by the County population forecasts.
Population forecasts have been outlined in the section on demographics and the Core strategy within this plan. These provide projections for County Kilkenny’s population to 2020. This estimates that the population of the County in 2020 will be 109,802.
The per capita expenditure estimates for comparison and convenience goods are derived from the CSO’s 2006 Annual Services Inquiry (ASI), the latest year for which information is available in the format required.
The analysis of retail expenditure is only concerned with expenditure that occurs within retail outlets; i.e. expenditure related to floorspace only. As a result the per capita expenditure figures exclude expenditure that does not occur in retail outlets – e.g. via the internet. The impact of internet shopping has not been subject to conclusive research. As such and for the purposes of this Assessment, it is assumed that the further growth in internet shopping will not be at the expense of retail floorspace.
Resident Population
ASI 2006 Section G table 1 page 16
Convenience
(,000) Table CA1
Convenience |
Turnover |
VAT |
Total |
52.1 exp in non specialised stores |
14,283,204 |
1,602,463 |
15,885,667 14,938,793* |
52.2 |
1,383,657 |
90,555 |
1,474,212 |
total |
15,666,861 |
1,693,018 |
16,413005 |
* Table entry with 10% reduction and 5% added from comparison spend
Vat is included as it is part of the shoppers spend.
Some adjustments to the data set out in Table CA1 above of the Services Inquiry are also necessary in order to ensure that goods are correctly categorised between comparison and convenience. Firstly, it is estimated that approximately 10% of retail sales in non specialised stores is in department stores and other comparison goods. The remaining 90% is categorised as convenience sales.
Population
Population of the state 2006 was 4,239,848. Source: CSO census of population
As the ASI 2006 is based on returns in 2007 the base year is 2007.
In 2007 the population the population of the state was estimated at 4,340,000 by CSO (Source: Irish Times 19th Dec 2007)
Therefore per capita convenience spend for the state at 2007 is €6,413,005/4,340,000 = €3,781
ASI 2006 Section G table 1 page 16
Comparison turnover
(,000) Table CA2
Comparison |
Turnover |
VAT |
Total |
52.4 |
10,959,448 |
1,874,423 |
12,833,871 13,780,737* |
52.5 |
116,780 |
8,543 |
125,243 |
52.6 |
257,900 |
32,721 |
290,621 |
total |
11,334,128 |
1,915,687 |
14,196,602 |
* Expenditure with 10% of non specialised stores added and 5% reduced
Background studies to the Retail Planning Guidelines provides that the category “other retailing in specialised stores” should be taken as comparison expenditure, with the exception of a small element of forecourt sales. An allowance has been made for this. A 10% adjustment for department stores and comparison goods as identified in the convenience figures.[1]
Total spend in the state on comparison goods € 14,196,602 x103
Therefore per capita spend for state is 14,196,602 x103/4,340,000 = €3271
For the purposes of this study expenditure on pharmaceutical goods and medical articles have been omitted from the comparison expenditure estimate as many medical or pharmaceutical products that would not constitute either convenience or comparison goods by normal definition.
Based on the 2006 Annual Service Inquiry we have estimated that the total expenditure per capita in 2006 on convenience goods was €3,248 and €3,056 on comparison goods.
These figures need to be adjusted to reflect expenditure levels in 2012 by taking account of the Consumer Price Index.
Table CA3
Adjustments to Available Expenditure |
||
|
Convenience |
Comparison |
Expenditure per capita 2006 prices |
€3,781 |
€3,271 |
CPI for 2012 |
105.6 |
105.6 |
Totals for 2012 expenditure |
€3992 |
€3454 |
The figures set out within Table CA3 illustrate convenience and comparison expenditure per capita prices in 2006 adjusted to a 2012 price year. No growth in expenditure per capita has been assumed between 2006 and 2010 having regard to the recent economic downturn.
This approach is in accordance with the results of the Retail Sales Index which illustrates growth in expenditure between 2006 and 2008 and a decline in available expenditure from 2008 to 2010.
It was also considered necessary to make a further adjustment to the comparison expenditure figure having regard to the trends observed from the Retail Sales Index. An adjustment is made to provide for a reduction in comparison goods expenditure per capita from 2006 to 2012.
While the Retail Sales Index shows that “high street” comparison goods, such as clothing and footwear remain at or above 2006 levels there has been a reduction on the overall comparison figure between 2006 and 2012.
Having reviewed the figures for comparison goods expenditure as set out in Retail Sales Index it is considered that a reduction of 4.1% in expenditure per capita from 2006- 2012 can be justified. The revised figures are illustrated in Table CA3b below.
Table CA3b
Available Per Capita Expenditure |
||
|
Convenience |
Comparison |
Expenditure per capita 2006 prices |
€3992 |
€3454 |
Available Expenditure for 2012 |
€3992 |
€3312 |
Price year 2012
Capacity Assessment
Expenditure per capita up to 2020
Since 2008 disposable incomes have fallen and both direct and indirect taxes have and will affect disposable income into the immediate future.
Taking this into account and reviewing the projected growth in the economy in the short to medium term a conservative view is taken in relation to expenditure growth per capita into the future.
It is assumed that expenditure growth in convenience spend will be zero between 2013 and 2015. This is because most household’s requirements in respect of convenience products have been largely satisfied.
It is also assumed that expenditure growth in comparison spend will be zero between 2013 and 2015. This is because of the low level of projected economic growth in the next two to three years.
The Central Bank of Ireland in Feb 2013 quarterly review predicts a fall in consumer spending of 0.4% this year (2013) and a rise of 0.2% next year.
ERSI in its Quarterly Economic Commentary (winter 2012) sees domestic demand contracting further due to continued fiscal adjustment and deleveraging.
From 2015 onwards it is anticipated that there will be modest growth in the national economy of the order of 2 – 3 per cent per annum.
From 2015 to 2020 therefore it is assumed that convenience growth in expenditure will be 0.5% per annum and 1.5% in comparison spend.
The projected per capita expenditure using these growth rates are given in Table CA4 below.
Table CA4
Projected Expenditure per Capita |
||
|
Convenience |
Comparison |
2012 |
3992 |
3312 |
2015 |
3992 |
3312 |
2020 |
4092 |
3567 |
Total Available Expenditure
This is calculated by multiplying the population by the expenditure per capita in CA4 above for each category.
Population
The population estimates for the county are as follows using the Regional Planning Guideline targets adjusted to take account of the CSO 2011 census of population.
Table CA4a
|
2011 |
2012 |
2014 |
2020 |
County population |
95,419 |
96,873 |
99,781 |
109,802 |
Source: Population projections Chapter 2 Kilkenny Draft County Development Plan 2013
Table CA5
Total Available Convenience Expenditure |
|
|
County Kilkenny |
2012 |
€386.71m |
2014 |
€398.32m |
2020 |
€449.30m |
Table CA6
Total Available Comparison Expenditure including bulky goods |
|
|
County Kilkenny |
2012 |
€320.84m |
2014 |
€330.47m |
2020 |
€391.16m |
Table CA6 sets out the total available comparison expenditure available within the administrative boundary of county. In considering the above expenditure levels it is important to note that significantly different levels of turnover will apply to comparison goods such as clothing and footwear and smaller household durables than would apply to bulky household goods sold in retail warehouses. Retail warehouses have a distinct function and are generally located outside of a city or town centre.
As such it is necessary to split the available comparison expenditure between bulky and non bulky comparison goods.
Having regard to the Household Budget Survey and experience elsewhere in this respect, it is estimated that approximately 20% of comparison expenditure will be accounted for by bulky household goods in retail warehouse type premises.
Therefore the total available bulky goods expenditure (using 20%) can be calculated as follows.
Table CA7
Total available bulky goods expenditure |
|
|
County Kilkenny |
2012 |
€64.17m |
2014 |
€66.10m |
2020 |
€78.23m |
Total available comparison expenditure excluding bulky goods
Table CA8
Total available Comparison Expenditure excluding bulky goods |
|
|
County Kilkenny |
2012 |
€256.67m |
2014 |
€264.37m |
2020 |
€312.93m |
Adjustments for inflows and outflows
From the household and shoppers surveys carried and reviewed it was established as follows:
From the 2010 shoppers surveys carried out it was recorded that:
Convenience % inflow = 8%
Convenience % outflow = 29%
Comparison % outflow = 31.6%
Comparison % inflow = 58%
Table CA9
Total Available Expenditure adjusted to account for Inflows and Outflows |
||||||
|
Convenience 2012 |
Comparison 2012 |
Bulky Goods 2012 |
|||
Resident Expenditure |
|
€386.71m |
|
€256.67m |
|
€64.17m |
Less Outflows |
29% |
€112.14m |
31.6% |
€81.10m |
9.3% |
€5.96m |
Spend by resident on Outlets in County |
|
€274.57m |
|
€175.56m |
|
€58.20m |
Add Imported Expenditure |
8% |
€21.96m |
58% |
€101.82m |
4% |
€2.32m |
Spend in retail outlets In Kilkenny |
|
€296.53m |
|
€277.38m |
|
€60.52m |
For the 2014 year it is assumed that the inflows and outflows will remain the same as at 2010. From 2015 onwards it is assumed that convenience inflows and outflows will remain the same as at present there is no proposal to bring forward a significant convenience proposal for the city and environs.
Table CA10
Total Available Expenditure adjusted to account for Inflows and Outflows |
||||||
|
Convenience 2014 |
Comparison 2014 |
Bulky Goods 2014 |
|||
Resident Expenditure |
|
€398.32m |
|
€264.37m |
|
€66.10m |
Less Outflows |
29% |
€115.51m |
31.6% |
€83.5m |
9.3% |
€6.14m |
Spend by resident on Outlets in County |
|
€282.81m |
|
€180.82m |
|
€59.90 |
Add Imported Expenditure |
8% |
€22.62m |
58% |
€104.88 |
4% |
€2.39m |
Spend in retail outlets In Kilkenny |
|
€305.43m |
|
€285.7m |
|
€62.29m |
Total Available Expenditure adjusted to account for Inflows and Outflows |
||||||
|
Convenience 2020 |
Comparison 2020 |
Bulky Goods 2020 |
|||
Resident Expenditure |
|
€449.30m |
|
€312.93m |
|
€78.23m |
Less Outflows |
29% |
€130.29m |
31.6% |
€98.88m |
9.3% |
€7.27m |
Spend by resident on Outlets in County |
|
€319.01m |
|
€214.04m |
|
€70.95m |
Add Imported Expenditure |
8% |
€25.52m |
58% |
€124.14m |
4% |
€2.83m |
Spend in retail outlets In Kilkenny |
|
€344.53m |
|
€338.18m |
|
€73.78m |
Existing Floorspace in County Kilkenny
The estimated existing floorspace within the county is given below in table CA11 and was derived from the Council’s own floorspace survey carried out in 2010.
Table CA11
Existing Floorspace in County Kilkenny 2010 |
|
Convenience |
20.531m2 |
Comparison |
40,966m2 |
Bulky Goods |
31,030m2 |
Source 2010 planning department survey updated to 2012
Table CA11 above does not take into consideration retail floorspace which has been permitted post 2012 or constructed and not trading. (Adjustments for these are made later in the assessment.)
2. Turnover Estimates
The total available expenditure available for 2012 set out in Table CA9 above is an estimate of the amount of expenditure that is currently being sustained by the estimated amount of floorspace in the County.
For example in 2012 the county has approximately 20,531 m2 of convenience floorspace that was generating €280.88m.
This gives a turnover ratio of €13,680/m2
Similarly approximately 40,966m2 of comparison floorspace was generating €243.35m
This gives a turnover ratio of €5,940/m2.
For bulky goods approximately 31,030m2 of space was generating €57.38m. This gives a turnover ratio of €1,849/m2. This is a sign of underperforming space.
Industry norms would suggest that convenience turnover ratio should be of the order of €10,000/m2
The generally accepted turnover ratio for existing comparison floorspace is of the order of €5,000 per sq.m.
For bulky goods the industry norm suggests a turnover ratio of the order of €2,500/m2
3. Turnover ratios
The assumed turnover ratios for existing floorspace in 2012 set out in table CA12 below are an estimate of the amount of expenditure that can be sustained by the estimated amount of floor space in the county at the beginning of the retail period. They are consistent with industry norms.
Table CA12 Assumed Turnover Ratios
Turnover Ratios Assumed for Existing Floorspace |
|||
|
Convenience[2] |
Comparison |
Bulky Goods |
2012 |
€10,000/m2 |
€5,000/m2 |
€2,500/m2 |
These figures show the average turnover per sq metre of existing floor space overall in County Kilkenny. They disguise significant differences in turnover for different shops. In general, multiple branches of national and international shops are located within purpose built shopping centres or other prime locations. Prime town centre shop units will have substantially higher turnover per square metre than shops which are less well located or situated in older inefficient premises and are operated as independents. In particular, it is likely that smaller units have substantially lower turnover per sq. metre than these averages whilst the largest supermarket operators have substantially higher turnover rates per square metre.
The turnover of existing retail floorspace within the County in 2012 is obtained by multiplying the existing floorspace estimates set out in Table CA11 by the turnover per sq. metre estimates set out in Table CA12 above. This is illustrated in Table CA13 below.
Table CA13
Turnover of Existing Floorspace |
|||
|
Convenience |
Comparison |
Bulky Goods |
2012 |
€205.31m |
€204.83m |
€77.57m |
The residual surplus for additional retail floorspace within the county is obtained by subtracting the turnover of existing convenience, comparison and bulky goods expenditure (for 2012) as set out in Table CA13 from the total available expenditure set out in tables CA9 and CA10.
Table CA14 below sets out the available expenditure.
Table CA14
Available Expenditure for additional Floorspace |
|||
Year |
Available Expenditure |
Turnover of Existing |
Surplus spend |
Convenience |
|||
2012 |
€296.53m |
€205.31m |
€91.53m |
2014 |
€305.43m |
€205.31m |
€100.12m |
2020 |
€344.53m |
€205.31m |
€139.22m |
Comparison |
|||
2012 |
€277.38m |
€204.83m |
€72.55m |
2014 |
€285.7m |
€204.83m |
€80.87m |
2020 |
€338.18m |
€204.83m |
€133.35m |
Bulky Goods |
|||
2012 |
€60.52m |
€77.57m |
-€17.05m |
2014 |
€62.29m |
€77.57m |
-€15.28m |
2020 |
€73.78m |
€77.57m |
-€ 3.79m |
Floorspace Capacity
In order to calculate the requirements for additional retail floorspace within the County, the turnover per sq. m. of new retail floorspace should be divided by the surplus spend available set out in Table CA14
For the purposes of this assessment a turnover per sq. m. of €13,000 is assumed for new convenience floorspace, €5,500 for new comparison retail floorspace and €2,500 for new bulky goods floorspace in 2012 prices.
Table CA15
Turnover of Future Retail Floorspace |
|||
|
2012 |
2014 |
2020 |
Convenience |
€13,000/m2 |
€13,000/m2 |
€13,000/m2 |
Comparison |
€5,500/m2 |
€5,610/m2 |
€5,955/m2 |
Bulky |
€2,500/m2 |
€2,550/m2 |
€2,707/m2 |
Assumption: 1% increase in turnover efficiency per annum for comparison and bulky goods in considered reasonable, and no increase in turnover efficiency for convenience goods.
Future Floorspace Requirements
Table CA16
Indicative Floor Space Requirements |
|||
|
2012 |
2014 |
2020 |
Convenience |
7040m2 |
7701m2 |
10,709m2 |
Comparison |
13,136m2 |
14,415m2 |
22,392m2 |
Bulky Goods |
- 6820m2 |
-5992m2 |
-1,400m2 |
It should be noted that the floorspace capacity figures outlined in Table CA16 above are indicative figures of the scale of new floorspace required to meet the needs of existing and future population and expenditure in the City and County. The key consideration is the scale and location of new floorspace.
Additional new floorspace may be proposed and this could replace some existing outdated or poorly located retail floorspace.
The quantum of retail floorspace only becomes a critical consideration where new convenience and comparison floorspace is proposed outside of the defined retail core of the city and the issue of likely impact on the city centre arises
Convenience
Since the compiling of the floorspace figures used in this analysis the following significant convenience retailing space has been granted in the City and Environs of Kilkenny.
- Two Aldi discount stores with 1,125m2 and 1,144m2 of net retail space. A discount store of Lidl was granted with 1,274m2 of net retail space. These are all trading and the total net retail space provided is 3,543m2.
- A further Aldi store of 990m2 net retail area is under construction in Callan and will open in 2013.
- A further point to note is that the Ferrybank District centre has 4,577m2 of convenience floorspace granted and has not yet opened. It is assumed that the Ferrybank shopping centre will not open until 2014 at the earliest.
Therefore the indicative floor space requirements must be reduced by these amounts as follows:
2012 7,040- 1,125 -1144 -1274 = 3,497m2
2014 7,701 – 1,125 -1144-1274- 4577 -990 = - 1,409m2
2020 10,709 – 1, 125,-1,144-1,274-4,577-990= 1,599m2
Comparison
There has been no significant comparison floorspace granted permission within the county since the floorspace survey was carried out in 2010.
At that time extant floorspace is permitted at the Kilkenny Retail Park and vacant was 2991m2.(bulky goods) and McDonagh Junction had 1,549m2 vacant and in Ferrybank 4,341m2 is constructed and is anticipated will not trade before 2014.
Therefore the estimated indicative floor area for comparison is
2012 13,136 – 1,549 = 11,587m2
2014 14,415 – 1,549-4,341 = 8,525m2
2020 22,392 – 1549-4341 = 16,502m2
Bulky Goods
There is a clear oversupply of retail space for bulky goods comparison shopping.
It is assumed that the Kilkenny Retail Park floorspace will trade post 2014. Factoring these figures into the derived figures, as set out in Table CA17 gives a final adjusted floor space requirement.
Table CA17
Indicative Floor Space Requirements |
|||
|
2012 |
2014 |
2020 |
Convenience |
3,497m2 |
-1,409m2 |
1,599m2 |
Comparison |
11,587m2 |
8,525m2 |
16,502m2 |
Bulky Goods |
- 6820m2 |
-5992m2 |
-4391m2 |
The effect on capacity when the Ferrybank shopping centre is included is of concern. It has the potential to impact on the development of additional significant convenience floorspace being developed over the period of the strategy.
Having regard to the population growth within the City and Environs and the shopping patterns within the county as evidenced by the household and shoppers surveys, it is considered that there is room for additional convenience capacity within Kilkenny City and environs during the plan period notwithstanding the build out capacity of the Ferrybank shopping centre.
The extent of that floorspace would need to be verified and justified through any planning application by means of a detail retail impact statement.
Recommendations
From the household surveys, it can be seen that an estimated 71% of convenience expenditure (market share) by the resident population is spent in retail units located in the county (29% outflow). This compares with 69.5% and 73% in the 2007 and 2004 reviews respectively.
The comparison market share of residents’ expenditure is 68.4% which is a small increase compared to 67.7% in the 2007 Review (31.6 % outflow).
From the shopper surveys, persons living outside the county account for an estimated 8% of total convenience turnover (trade draw) and 58% of the total comparison turnover of the County’s retail outlets.
29% of the convenience exp goes outside the county
8% of convenience expenditure is from people outside the county
31.6% of comparison exp goes outside the county.
58% of comparison expenditure is from people outside the county.
Convenience market share should be higher than 71%.
It is reasonable to have the following targets as planning objectives to be achieved post 2020.
- Convenience market share improving to 80% post 2020[3]
- Comparison market share improving to 75% post 2020
- Convenience trade draw increasing from 8% to 15% post 2020.
- Comparison trade draw to remain at 58% post 2020
A.2 Household Surveys: Approach and Analysis
(Date of report: March 2011)
Introduction
The overall objective of the household survey was to provide an insight into the shopping patterns of the resident population of Kilkenny city and county. For this reason only people normally resident in the City and County were interviewed.
A total of 517 household surveys were carried out on various dates during November and December 2010. During November 2010 a household survey was conducted, mainly through online survey forms. This survey was advertised in the Kilkenny People, which directed people to the Council’s website, where they could then complete a short online questionnaire. Hard copies of the survey form were also made available in all the Area Offices and the libraries. A total of 157 online surveys were completed and a total of 9 postal surveys were received. Following this, a number of households in Thomastown were randomly selected using the Eircom online phonebook, and a total of 29 surveys were completed by this means.
Finally a total of 322 door-to-door surveys were carried out by staff members of the Planning Department. These were conducted in Callan, Castlecomer, Kilkenny city, South Kilkenny (Ballyhale, Mullinavat and Ferrybank) and Northwest Kilkenny (Urlingford, Johnstown and Freshford).
For the purposes of analysis the county was divided into six study areas denoted by the principal town in each area. Table 1 below lists the origin of respondents.
Table 1: Origin of Respondents
|
||
Study Area |
Respondents |
Proportion % |
Kilkenny city |
182 |
35.2% |
South Kilkenny |
71 |
13.7% |
Callan |
70 |
13.5% |
Castlecomer |
78 |
15.1% |
Northwest (Urlingford) |
64 |
12.4% |
Thomastown |
52 |
10.1% |
Total |
517 |
100% |
Respondents’ Profile
The survey obtained personal information regarding the gender and age of the 517 respondents. The majority, 67% were female. Almost 24% of the respondents were aged 35-44 and 21% were aged 25-34. The 15-24 age group recorded the lowest response rate at 5%, 15% were aged 45-54, 16% aged 55-64, 12% aged 65-74 and 5.2% aged 75 or over.
Survey Analysis
The key questions posed by the household survey relate to the following topics:
- Main Food Shopping;
- Top Up Shopping;
- Clothing and Footwear Shopping;
- Bulky Goods Shopping;
- Shopping in Kilkenny City
Main Food Shopping
Main food shopping destinations as identified through the household surveys are set out in Table 2.
Table 2: Main Food shopping destination of all respondents Food Shopping Locations |
|||
Location |
Store |
Respondents |
% |
Kilkenny
|
Dunnes |
116 |
21.8% |
Superquinn |
46 |
8.7% |
|
Supervalu |
52 |
9.8% |
|
Lidl |
72 |
13.6% |
|
Ballyragget |
Supervalu |
2 |
0.4% |
Callan |
Supervalu |
18 |
3.4% |
Castlecomer |
Spar |
25 |
4.7% |
Ferrybank |
Aldi |
14 |
2.6% |
Graigue |
Supervalu |
1 |
0.2% |
Thomastown |
Supervalu |
22 |
4.1% |
Lidl |
16 |
3.0% |
|
Co. Kilkenny |
Other |
4 |
0.8% |
Carlow |
Superquinn |
1 |
0.2% |
Tesco |
24 |
4.5% |
|
Aldi |
9 |
1.7% |
|
Dunnes |
3 |
0.6% |
|
Thurles |
Tesco |
11 |
2.1% |
Dunnes |
9 |
1.7% |
|
Clonmel |
Dunnes |
3 |
0.6% |
Tesco |
10 |
1.9% |
|
Waterford
|
Tesco |
35 |
6.6% |
Supervalu |
9 |
1.7% |
|
Superquinn |
3 |
0.6% |
|
Lidl |
6 |
1.1% |
|
New Ross |
Tesco New Ross |
3 |
0.6% |
Aldi New Ross |
1 |
0.2% |
|
Rathdowney |
Dunnes |
6 |
1.1% |
Other outside co. |
|
8 |
1.5% |
Internet |
Tesco |
2 |
0.4% |
Total within County Total outside County Total |
388 |
73.1% |
|
143 |
26.9% |
||
531* |
|
||
*Note: Some respondents answered more than one shop for their main shopping trip |
Dunnes Stores (both branches) in Kilkenny was the most popular destination for main grocery shopping by 21.8% of respondents, followed by Lidl with 13.6% of respondents. Just over one quarter (26.9%) of respondents travelled to a destination outside the County for their main food shopping. Tesco in Waterford accounted for 6.6% of this leakage.
Table 3 provides a breakdown of shopping destinations and the area from which the respondents originated. It can be seen from the table that the top destinations for main food shopping corresponded with the area from which households set out from. In the South, the northwest, and the north, it is clear that a significant number of households are conducting their main shop in locations outside the county.
Table 3: Main food shopping destinations by origin of Respondents
|
||||
Area |
Destination |
Store |
Respondents |
% of area |
Kilkenny city |
Kilkenny |
Dunnes Stores |
67 |
35.1 |
|
Kilkenny |
SuperValu |
48 |
25.1 |
|
Kilkenny |
Superquinn |
31 |
16.2 |
South Kilkenny |
Waterford |
Tesco |
32 |
48.5 |
|
Ferrybank |
Aldi |
14 |
21.2 |
|
Waterford |
Supervalu |
9 |
13.6 |
Callan |
Kilkenny |
Dunnes |
23 |
31.5 |
|
Kilkenny |
Lidl |
18 |
24.7 |
|
Callan |
Supervalu |
18 |
24.7 |
Castlecomer |
Castlecomer |
Eurospar |
25 |
30.9 |
|
Carlow |
Tesco |
13 |
16 |
|
Kilkenny |
Lidl |
11 |
13.6 |
Northwest (Urlingford) |
Kilkenny |
Dunnes |
13 |
21.7 |
|
Thurles |
Tesco |
11 |
18.3 |
|
Thurles |
Lidl |
7 |
11.7 |
Thomastown |
Thomastown |
Supervalu |
20 |
40 |
|
Thomastown |
Lidl |
14 |
28 |
|
Kilkenny |
Dunnes |
5 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
For those respondents travelling outside County Kilkenny for their main food shopping, Waterford city was the most popular destination. Table 4 below lists the most popular shops outside of the county by town and by shop.
Table 4: Main food shopping destinations outside of the county by Destination and Shop
|
||
Destination |
Respondents |
% |
Waterford city |
50 |
9.6 |
Carlow |
35 |
6.7 |
Thurles |
33 |
6.3 |
|
|
|
Shop |
Respondents |
% |
Tesco, Waterford |
35 |
6.7 |
Tesco, Carlow |
21 |
4 |
Tesco, Thurles |
11 |
2.1 |
Tesco, Clonmel |
10 |
1.9 |
Table 5 below provides information on the level of expenditure on main food shopping amongst respondents. The highest proportion, 21.5%, spent between €76 and €100 on their last main food shopping trip.
Table 5: Expenditure on last Main food shopping trip
|
||
Expenditure (Euros)
|
Respondents |
% |
€0-25 |
25 |
4.9% |
€26-50 |
55 |
10.8% |
€51-75 |
84 |
16.5% |
€76-100 |
109 |
21.5% |
€101-125 |
75 |
14.8% |
€126-150 |
83 |
16.3% |
€151-175 |
23 |
4.5% |
€176-200 |
22 |
4.3% |
€201-225 |
15 |
3.0% |
€226-250 |
7 |
1.4% |
>€250 |
10 |
2.0% |
|
|
|
A point of note is that shopping for the main food shop on the internet accounted for only 2 of the households surveyed, which forms a mere 0.38%. Both of these households used Tesco’s online service.
Top Up Shopping
Table 6 below illustrates that a wide range of top up shopping locations are used by shoppers in the County with no centre being predominant. This would be expected as it is a trip which is generally undertaken at the most local level. At the County level, Supervalu in Callan was found to be the most popular top up shopping destination with 9.7% of all respondents going there. This was closely followed by Supervalu in Kilkenny.
Table 6: Primary Top Up Shopping Locations
|
||
Store |
Respondents |
% |
Supervalu, Callan |
50 |
9.7 |
Supervalu, Kilkenny |
42 |
8.1 |
Eurospar, Castlecomer |
38 |
7.4 |
Dunnes, Kilkenny |
28 |
5.4 |
Centra, Urlingford |
28 |
5.4 |
Centra, Ardnore, Kilkenny |
23 |
4.4 |
Supervalu, Thomastown |
18 |
3.5 |
Spar, Newpark, Kilkenny |
18 |
3.5 |
Aldi, Ferrybank |
14 |
2.7 |
Centra, Mullinavat |
11 |
2.1 |
Lidl, Kilkenny |
11 |
2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
By its nature expenditure on top-up shopping is considerably less than spent on main food shopping. Over three-quarters of respondents spent €25 or less on their last shopping trip.
Table 7: Expenditure on last top-up food shopping trip
|
||
Expenditure (Euros)
|
Respondents |
% |
€0-25 |
362 |
76.4 |
€26-50 |
95 |
20.0 |
€51-75 |
12 |
2.5 |
€76-100 |
3 |
0.6 |
€101-125 |
1 |
0.2 |
€126-150 |
0 |
0.0 |
€151-175 |
1 |
0.2 |
€176-200 |
0 |
0.0 |
€201-225 |
0 |
0.0 |
€226-250 |
0 |
0.0 |
>€250 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
Clothing & Footwear Shopping
Table 8 shows the main clothing and footwear shopping destinations as derived from the household surveys. 62.3% identified Kilkenny City, as where they did their clothing and footwear shopping.
Centres outside of the County where comparison expenditure was leaking to were identified as:
- Waterford City: 13% of respondents conducted their last clothing shop in Waterford
- Dublin: was identified as only a significant clothing and footwear destination for the respondents, accounting for 6.5% of households surveyed.
- Carlow: accounted for 5% of respondents
- Internet usage: accounted for 2.3% of respondents
- Other locations cited included: Portlaoise (3), Kildare (10), Cork (3), Limerick (2) and Rathdowney (3).
Table 8: Primary Clothing/Footwear Shopping Locations
|
||
County |
Respondents |
% |
Kilkenny |
324 |
62.3% |
Other Co. Kilkenny |
11 |
2.1% |
Waterford |
68 |
13.1% |
Carlow |
26 |
5.0% |
Clonmel |
6 |
1.2% |
Dublin |
34 |
6.5% |
Internet |
12 |
2.3% |
Thurles |
9 |
1.7% |
Other
|
30 |
5.8% |
Total within County |
335 |
64.4% |
Total outside County |
185 |
35.5% |
Total |
520 |
100.0% |
As indicated in Table 9 below, expenditure on clothing and footwear is spread across a number of ranges. The majority, 20.7%, spent between €76 and €100 on their last trip.
Table 9: Expenditure on last clothing and footwear shopping trip
|
||
Expenditure (Euros)
|
Respondents |
% |
€0-25 |
36 |
7.4% |
€26-50 |
93 |
19.0% |
€51-75 |
73 |
14.9% |
€76-100 |
101 |
20.7% |
€101-125 |
42 |
8.6% |
€126-150 |
38 |
7.8% |
€151-175 |
16 |
3.3% |
€176-200 |
21 |
4.3% |
€201-225 |
20 |
4.1% |
€226-250 |
6 |
1.2% |
>€250 |
43 |
8.8% |
|
|
|
Bulky goods
Table 10 identifies the main places where people do their bulky goods shopping.
Table 10: Primary Bulky Goods Shopping Locations
|
|||
Location |
Store |
Respondents |
% |
Kilkenny City |
DID |
78 |
14.7% |
Kilkenny City |
Electrocity |
86 |
16.3% |
Kilkenny City |
Woodies |
21 |
4.0% |
Kilkenny |
Other |
219 |
41.4% |
Carlow |
|
10 |
1.9% |
Dublin |
|
17 |
3.2% |
Clonmel |
|
0 |
0.0% |
Waterford |
|
63 |
11.9% |
Internet |
|
5 |
0.9% |
Other |
|
30 |
5.7% |
|
|
|
|
Total within County |
|
404 |
76.3% |
Total outside County |
|
125 |
23.6% |
Total |
|
529 |
100.0% |
|
The table illustrates that Electro City in Kilkenny City was the main destination for bulky goods shopping (16.3%), with DID Electrical being the second most popular location (14.7%) for respondents.
A total of 23.6% of the households travelled outside the County to purchase bulky goods. A total of 5 respondents bought their last bulky goods item on the internet.
Additional Key Findings
The following provides a summary of the additional key findings found from the household survey:
- Over 61% of respondents carry out their main grocery shopping once a week while 24% conduct main food shopping twice a week or more;
- Some 25% of households surveyed revealed that they undertake top up shopping everyday. An interesting finding was that some household’s patterns are to do daily or more frequent top-up shopping, and no main shop at all;
- The category for which internet purchases was the most significant was for clothes and shoes shopping, and even this was recorded as forming only 2.3% of a response;
- Being located close to home (31.6%), a good choice of shops (27.2%), and value (14.3%) ranked as the key attractions for clothing and footwear shopping destinations in the survey;
- Some 27% of respondents visited Kilkenny City for shopping purposes once a week or more. 3.9% of respondents declared they had not visited in the last six months and 4.3% stated they never visit for shopping purposes.
Comparison of Household Surveys 2000, 2004, 2007 and 2010
The key findings from a comparative analysis of the 2000, 2004, 2007 and 2010 household surveys are highlighted in Table 11. The table compares the expenditure outflows within the County for 2000, 2004, 2007 and 2010.
Table 11 Comparative Analysis – Outflows of Expenditure |
|
Surveys |
Outflows (%) |
2000 – Kilkenny Retail Strategy* Convenience Comparison |
19.8 35.6 |
2004 – Kilkenny Retail Strategy Review Convenience Comparison |
27.0 30.0 |
2007 – Kilkenny Retail Strategy Review Convenience Comparison |
30.5 32.3 |
2010 – Kilkenny Retail Strategy Convenience Comparison |
29.0 31.6 |
Source: Kilkenny Retail Strategy 2000, 2004 and 2007 Note: *2000 was the year the survey was undertaken for the 2001 Strategy |
Convenience Expenditure Leakage
The table illustrates that from 2000 to 2007 convenience expenditure leakage had increased from 19.8% to 30.5%. This reflected the fact that there was no significant level of new modern format convenience floorspace delivered in the County in the interim period and as a result people were increasingly going to other centres such as Waterford, Carlow and Thurles. Since the last surveys in 2007, the level of convenience expenditure leakage has decreased by over 1%. This is reflective of the new offer throughout the County, including a new Dunnes in MacDonagh, two Lidls in Kilkenny city, Aldi in Ferrybank and a Lidl and improved Supervalu in Thomastown.
As it is generally accepted that convenience shopping is undertaken locally, with leakage in urban areas being more of the order of 10%, the level of convenience expenditure leakage is still significant. The opening of a large modern format convenience floorspace in the Ferrybank District Centre and the opening of additional discount retailers in the city will serve to help redress the issue but, even with these emerging developments, the facts indicate that the City and County require further enhancement and strengthening of their main food convenience offers.
Comparison Expenditure Leakage
Table 11 indicates that, in contrast to patterns in convenience shopping, since 2000 the County as a whole has witnessed a relatively small decrease in comparison expenditure leakage. It can be accepted that, given that Kilkenny City is the only major comparison shopping centre in the County, people will travel to other centres – although this will be on a less frequent basis – to undertake their comparison shopping. The role of the Retail Strategy is, therefore, to provide the framework for enhancing the City and County’s comparison offer and maximising the retention of spend.
A.3 Shopper survey: Approach and Analysis
(Date of report: November 2010)
Introduction
A total of 343 shopper surveys were conducted in five locations throughout Kilkenny City on two dates in October 2010. Table 1 below lists the centres and the number of people surveyed at each centre.
Table 1: Location of Interviews in Kilkenny
|
||
Location |
Persons |
Proportion % |
High Street/Borough Council |
102 |
30 |
Dunnes on Kieran Street |
59 |
17 |
Parliament St., High St., Kieran St., Winston’s |
49 |
14 |
Market Cross Shopping Centre |
70 |
20 |
Mac Donagh Junction shopping centre |
63 |
18 |
Total |
343 |
100 |
Table 2 provides information on the time and day of responses to the shopper survey. The majority, 53% of respondents were interviewed between 12-4 pm and more surveys were undertaken on the Saturday.
Table 2: Shopper survey time spread
|
|||
Day of the week |
Proportion (%) |
Time of Day |
Proportion (%) |
Wednesday |
45 |
Morning (11am - 12pm) |
47 |
Saturday |
55 |
Afternoon (12 - 4pm) |
53 |
Survey Information
The key questions posed by the shopper survey relate to the following topics:
- Shopper origin
- Mode of transport
- Reason for visiting Kilkenny city
- Actual/expected expenditure on goods or services
- Main stores/areas visited
- Principal attractions of Kilkenny City
- Principal improvements to Kilkenny City
Shopper Origin
Table 3 below provides an indication of the origin of respondents to the shopper survey. The majority, 70%, of respondents were from Kilkenny City and county.
Table 3: Origin of Respondents to the Shopper Survey
|
||
Origin |
Respondents |
Proportion (%) |
Kilkenny (county and city) |
238 |
69 |
Non-residents |
105 |
31 |
A breakdown of the origin of respondents from outside Kilkenny City and County is provided in Table 4 below. The neighbouring counties of Carlow, Laois, Tipperary, Wexford and Waterford account for 13% of respondents. A further 5% travelled from abroad.
Table 4: Origin of Non-Kilkenny Residents
|
||
Origin by county |
Respondents |
Proportion (%) |
Dublin |
16 |
5 |
Carlow |
12 |
3 |
Laois |
6 |
2 |
Tipperary |
13 |
4 |
Wexford |
3 |
1 |
Waterford |
9 |
3 |
Offaly |
1 |
0 |
Kildare |
5 |
1 |
Other |
22 |
6 |
Outside Ireland |
18 |
5 |
Total |
105 |
31 |
Mode of Transport
Table 5 provides a breakdown of the modes of transport.
Table 5: Mode of Transport |
|
Mode |
Proportion (%) |
1 Car |
70% |
2 Walk |
23% |
3 Bus |
2% |
4 Bicycle |
2% |
5 Motorbike |
0% |
6 Train |
2% |
7 Coach |
0% |
8 Other |
1% |
Total |
100% |
Reasons for visiting Kilkenny City
Respondents were asked to provide information on the primary reasons for travelling to Kilkenny on the day of their visit. Among Kilkenny residents it was found that 47% were in the city to do some form of grocery shopping. Only 6% of non-Kilkenny residents were in the City for grocery shopping. Among Kilkenny residents, 34% cited clothes/footwear as a reason for visiting, whilst among non-residents 45% cited this as a reason. Of the total respondents, only 6% cited Furnishing/household/electrical as a reason for visiting.
Table 6: Main reasons for visiting Kilkenny
|
|||
Reasons stated |
Kilkenny Residents % |
Non-Residents % |
Total |
Main grocery |
32 |
4 |
36 |
Other grocery |
15 |
2 |
17 |
Clothes/footwear |
34 |
45 |
79 |
Furnishing/Household/electrical |
2 |
4 |
6 |
Accessories |
4 |
8 |
12 |
Browse |
24 |
40 |
64 |
Tourist/day trip |
2 |
33 |
35 |
Bank/financial |
7 |
0 |
7 |
On business/work |
15 |
5 |
20 |
Eating/meal out/snack |
22 |
25 |
47 |
|
|
|
|
Note: Totals add up to more than 100% as in most cases shoppers gave two or more reasons
Shopper spend
Table 7 indicates the level of expenditure among respondents to the shopper survey.
Table 7: Level of Expenditure (€)
|
||||
Origin |
Convenience
|
Comparison
|
Other (Cinema/ Hairdresser etc.) |
Total |
Kilkenny Residents |
6,326 |
6,570 |
2,066 |
14,962 |
Non-Residents |
582 |
9,211 |
2,498 |
12,291 |
Total |
6,908 |
15,781 |
4,564 |
27,253 |
Table 8 provides a percentage breakdown of the respondents’ spend between residents and non-residents. Only 8% of expenditure on convenience goods is accounted for by non-residents. On the other hand, non-residents accounted for 58% of comparison goods expenditure. Clearly respondents from outside the county are more likely to travel to the city for comparison goods than convenience goods.
Table 8: Shopper Spend %
|
||||
Origin |
Convenience
|
Comparison
|
Other (Cinema/eating out Hairdresser etc.) |
Total |
Kilkenny Residents |
92 |
42 |
45 |
55 |
Non-Residents |
8 |
58 |
55 |
45 |
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
Main stores/areas visited
Respondents were asked to indicate the primary streets, shopping centres, or areas that they visited or intended to visit in the city. Table 9 indicates that the majority, 34% travelled or intended to travel to High Street. Kieran Street was the next most popular destination.
Table 9: Top locations visited |
|
Area |
Proportion (%) |
High Street |
34% |
Kieran Street |
21% |
Mac Donagh Junction |
17% |
Market Cross |
16% |
John Street |
2% |
Loughboy |
1% |
Parade |
2% |
Lidl |
1% |
Rose Inn |
2% |
Other |
5% |
|
|
Total |
100% |
Frequency of visits
Respondents were asked to indicate the frequency with which they visit Kilkenny City. As indicated in Table 10, 91% of Kilkenny residents visit Kilkenny city at least once a week. Just 10% of respondents from outside County Kilkenny visit Kilkenny City once a week or more.
Table 10: Main reasons for visiting Kilkenny
|
|||
Frequency |
Kilkenny Residents % |
Non-Residents % |
Total |
1 More than 3 times a week |
43% |
0% |
43% |
2 2-3 times a week |
24% |
4% |
28% |
3 Once a week |
24% |
3% |
27% |
4 2-3 times a month |
5% |
3% |
8% |
5 Once a month |
3% |
7% |
10% |
6 Once every 2 months |
1% |
10% |
11% |
7 Less often |
0% |
50% |
50% |
8 First time |
0% |
19% |
19% |
9 Work here |
0% |
4% |
4% |
0 Never |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
|
|
|
Main attractions
Table 11 below indicates the principal attractions shoppers cited for Kilkenny City. The most often cited attraction was that it was ‘close to home’. ‘Attractive shopping environment’ and ‘Good choice of clothing & footwear shops’ were the next most popular reasons.
Table 11: Main attractions of Kilkenny City |
|
Attraction |
Proportion (%) |
Close to home |
23% |
Close to work |
3% |
Close to hotel |
1% |
Easy to get to by bus |
1% |
Easy to get to by car |
6% |
Easy to get to by train |
0% |
Good and extensive parking provision |
2% |
Free parking |
0% |
Good choice of clothing & footwear shops |
10% |
Good choice of quality/designer shops |
2% |
Good choice of cheap/discount shops |
3% |
Good choice of variety stores |
8% |
Good choices of places to eat & drink |
8% |
Pedestrianised streets |
4% |
Safe environment/no crime |
2% |
Covered shopping malls |
2% |
Attractive shopping environment |
10% |
Good facilities for children |
1% |
Good facilities for people with disabilities |
1% |
A particular store |
3% |
No particular reason/Don’t know |
1% |
Other |
6% |
Castle |
2% |
|
|
Principal Improvements
Table 12 provides an indication of the principal improvements respondents considered important for Kilkenny City. Cheaper/free parking and more parking provision were the two most often cited reasons.
Table 12: Improvements to Kilkenny City as mentioned |
|
Improvement |
Proportion (%) |
Cheaper/free parking |
15% |
More parking provision |
10% |
More pedestrianised streets |
7% |
More shops |
7% |
More toilets |
6% |
More facilities for children |
4% |
Better/more frequent bus service |
4% |
More seating areas/benches |
3% |
More cash machines |
3% |
Improve access by car |
3% |
|
|
Comparison of Shopper Surveys 2007 and 2010
As part of the review of the Retail Strategy in 2007, 230 face-to-face on-street shopper interviews were conducted at four locations in the city centre. One additional survey point of Mac Donagh Junction shopping centre was added to the surveys for this study.
This section provides a comparative analysis of the shopping expenditure inflows into County Kilkenny from the surrounding areas. Table 13 below illustrates the changes that have occurred in expenditure inflows between 2000 and 2010.
Table 13 Comparative Analysis – Inflows of Expenditure |
|
Surveys |
Inflows (%) |
2000 – Kilkenny Retail Strategy* Convenience Comparison |
6.3 28.8 |
2004 –Kilkenny Retail Strategy Review Convenience Comparison |
19.8 35.6 |
2007 – Kilkenny Retail Strategy Review Convenience Comparison |
9.8 41.5 |
2010 – Kilkenny Retail Strategy Convenience Comparison |
8 58 |
Source: Kilkenny Retail Strategy Review 2004 and 2007 Note: * 2000 was the year the survey was undertaken for the 2001 Strategy |
From the table it can be seen that convenience expenditure inflows have dropped from a peak of 19.8% in 2004 to 8% in 2010. Although inflows remain above their 2000 level (6.3%), they would be anticipated to be higher.
In contrast, comparison expenditure inflows can be seen to have steadily grown since 2000. This is reflective of the increased comparison floorspace which has come on stream. The offer and attraction of mainstream comparison shopping is also an important factor in the equation and has played a key role in the increase in comparison inflows. The figures confirm that the Retail Strategy’s objective in sustaining the competitiveness of the City and County in the regional and national retail economies has been achieved.
Table 14 below provides a comparative breakdown of the 2004, 2007 and 2010 shopper expenditure patterns by residents and non-residents of the County.
Table 14 Proportion of Shopper Spend in 2007 & 2010 (%) |
||||||||
Origin |
Convenience
|
Comparison
|
Other*
|
Total |
||||
2007 |
2010 |
2007 |
2010 |
2007 |
2010 |
2007 |
2010 |
|
Kilkenny Residents |
90.2 |
92 |
58.5 |
42 |
74.4 |
45 |
79.1 |
55 |
Non-Residents |
9.8 |
8 |
41.5 |
58 |
25.6 |
55 |
20.9 |
45 |
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
Source: Kilkenny Retail Strategy Review, 2007 Note: *Cinema, hotels, restaurants, hairdressers etc |
The table illustrates that convenience expenditure by non-residents has dropped between 2007 and 2010. However, comparison spend has risen by over 16% during the same period. In terms of overall non-resident expenditure, there has been an increase of 24% as a proportion of total spend.
[1] As 10% of expenditure in non specialised stores is deemed to be comparison this has been added to the figure under 52.4 in table CA2
[2] Reference has been made to recent strategies in Sligo, Cork, Waterford, Meath, Wexford and Laois and previous Kilkenny strategies in arriving at this figure.
[3] Not taken into account in the capacity assessment. These are targets to be achieved should proposals come forward for significant retail development that would affect inflow and outflow patterns.